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We already mentioned one fallacy that’s deceptively named as a law – the law of small numbers. There’s another one, called the law of averages. It results from poor understanding of uncertainty and probability and is tightly related to the gambler’s fallacy. The law of averages is the erroneous belief that a certain outcome is due because it is statistically possible and hasn’t occurred in recent results. Players expect outcomes to even immediately after a recent deviation from the average. This is more of a wishful thinking than a statistically adequate expectation. Once again, we must point out that the probability of a given outcome in future trials is not affected by results in the past. Keep this in mind, otherwise the law of averages will become the law of large losses.Margereson still had a strong chance of winning the leaderboard going into the final event, when he was just 18.25 points behind, and both players made it to day two of the WPT Mini Super High Roller.

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